2 日銀の金融政策も副作用が指摘され始めており、いつまでも長期金利を抑制できるとは限らない。2025年には団塊の世代がすべて75歳以上となり、医療費・介護費が急増する可能性が高いため、消費税率を10％に引き上げても財政は安定化しない。2020年夏ごろまでに、2030年以降の社会保障財政の安定化に必要な増税幅や社会保障改革のスケールを明らかにし、社会保障・税一体改革ver2.0の議論を深める。 Japan is still facing long-term fiscal problems. It is starting to be pointed out that there are side effects from the BOJ’s policy for monetary easing, and it seems unlikely that Japan will be able to keep holding down its interest rates in the long-term. As added pressure, the baby boomer generation will have turned 75 by 2025, and the associated increase in medical and nursing care costs mean that public finance will not stabilize even after the consumption tax is raised to 10%. There is a need to clarify the extent of tax increases, and the social security reform, that is necessary to stabilize nances for social security in 2030 and beyond. As part of this there needs to be deeper debate on an ‘integrated social security and tax reform ver2.0’ by the summer of 2020.■ 現状の問題点・最終的に必要な改革の組合せ（例：増税の幅、社会保障改革のスケール）が明らかでなく、将来の不確実性が高い（例：家計や企業の消費や投資にマイナスの影響）。・成長は重要だが、楽観的な高成長に期待した改革議論は負担のツケを将来に先送りするギャンブル（例：Harvard UniversityのMankiw教授の財政赤字ギャンブル）。・いかに社会保障改革を進め、消費税率を上げたとしても、軽減税率を導入し過剰ともいえる反動減対策を行っていては、砂漠に水を撒くようなもの。■ Current Issues・ The combination of changes necessary to stabilize nancial resources, e.g. the extent of the tax increase or the scale of social security reform, is currently unclear. There is signicant uncertainty about Japan’s scal future, including over potential negative impacts on household and business savings, and on consumption and investment.・ Debate on tax reform has been based on over-optimistic expectations of high growth. This is a gamble that pushes the burden onto future generations (refer to Harvard University Prof. Greg Mankiw’s “The Decit Gamble”).・ Even with the increased consumption tax and efforts towards social security reform, it will have no impact if the government persists with introducing low tax rates and other measures to ease the potential blowback through tax policies—‘like sprinkling water on a desert’.■ 目指すべき方向性・慎重な成長率を前提に、財政の長期試算や世代会計の公式推計を早急に行い、2030年以降の財政安定化に必要な改革の組合せを提示する（例：消費税率20％、年金の支給開始年齢に自動調整メカニズムを導入、医療版マクロ経済スライド）。・軽減税率を廃止する。それと同時に、低所得者対策の観点から、マイナンバー制度を利用し、給付付き税額控除を導入する。・軽減税率を廃止しない場合、資産課税の拡充を含め、消費税以外の新たな社会保障財源のあり方に関する検討を早急に行う（例：金融所得課税、富裕税等の財産税）。■ Recommended Directions・ As a top priority, use more cautious growth rate predictions to conduct a long- term forecast for public finance, and an estimate of generation accounts, to present a set of reforms that will achieve fiscal stabilization after 2030 (e.g. 20% consumption tax, an automatic adjustment of the starting year for pension payment, or a health version of the macro-economic slide).・ Abolish low tax rates. Also use the MyNumber system to introduce tax deductions with benets that assist low income earners. ・ If low taxes are to be continued, then start debate on sources of social security funding other than the consumption tax, as soon as possible (e.g. income tax and property tax including tax on wealth)提言 1Proposal 1消費税率10％以後の社会保障・税制改革の姿Consider shape of social security and tax reform after the 10% consumption tax increase
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