4 わが国の年金財政は、極めて深刻な問題を抱えつつ、２度の財政検証では、実態と乖離した経済前提を置くことで、そうした実態が糊塗されている。最大の問題は、マクロ経済スライドがほぼ機能していないことにあり、これを今後機能させていくため、名目下限措置を外しておく必要がある。さらに、年金財政健全化に向け、生涯受給額を減らす形での支給開始年齢引き上げも選択肢として外すべきではない。 Japan’s pension funding has serious problems relating to long-term sustainability. Assessment in the last two scal reviews was based on economic assumptions that are distant from reality; and the reviews work to hide the severity of the situation. The biggest issue is that the government’s macro-economic slide (which, based on the Swedish model, was meant to link pension contributions and liabilities in a manner that balanced the entire system) has not functioned as intended. The nominal lower limit threshold will have to be removed if it is to become fully functional. Options such as pushing back the starting age for pension payments and reducing the amount in each lifetime entitlement payout should be considered as means to rehabilitate overall pension nances.■ 現状の問題点・わが国の年金財政は、極めて深刻な問題を抱えつつ、そうした実態は糊塗され続けている。厚生労働省は、5年に一度、人口動態と経済変数に一定の前提を置き、年金財政の今後100年間の姿を描き出す作業を行う（財政検証）。いわば年金財政の定期健診である。第１回の2009年、第２回の2014年、第3回の2019年の財政検証何れにおいても、健康体であるとの判断が下された。・もっとも、そこでは、物価上昇率1.2％、賃金上昇率2.5％など、実態と乖離した日本経済の先行きに関する前提を置くことで、2004年改正で導入された「マクロ経済スライド」が順調に機能し、年金財政があたかも健康体であるかのように脚色されているに過ぎない。■ Current Issues・ There have been repeated efforts to conceal severity of problems facing the Japanese pension system. ・ Once every ve years, the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare conducts a fiscal review based on set assumptions about demographic and economic change, providing an outlook on pension nances for the next 100 years. This is the ‘regular check-up’ for pension funding. In the reviews in 2009, 2014 and 2019, the pension system was declared to be in good health. ・ The assertion of good health was based on 1.2% inflation, 2.5% wage growth and other assumptions distant from the present reality and forecasts for Japan’s economy. Calculations also assumed that the ‘macro-economic slide’ introduced in 2004 would function as anticipated. The outcome is only a false image of scal sustainability.■ 目指すべき方向性・マクロ経済スライドを今後機能させていくためには、前年の名目年金額を維持するという縛り（名目下限措置）を外す必要がある。さらに、それでもなお、年金財政の健全化に不十分であると判断されれば、生涯受給額を減らす形での支給開始年齢引き上げにも取り組む必要がある。■ Recommended Directions・ The government needs to remove the requirement for maintaining the nominal lower limit (the nominal lower limit threshold) if it is to make the macro-economic slide for pensions function as intended. Also, if it is determined that removing the threshold will be insufficient to return pension finances to a state of health, it will be necessary to push back the starting age for pension benefits, and (for example) reducing the amount in entitlement payouts, to prevent the eventual depletion of pension funds. 提言 2Proposal 2年金財政の健全化Rehabilitate Japan’s pension nances
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